2022 Texas gubernatorial election


The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won a third term, defeating the [Texas Texas Democratic Party|Democratic Party|Democratic] nominee, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke. All statewide elected offices were currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.
The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.
Texas had not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards won a narrow victory in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving. Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was at one-time widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott. However, in the intervening years, he amassed baggage that was leveraged against him in 2022. A [Beto O'Rourke 2020 United States Senate election in Texas|2020 presidential campaign|failed run for President of the United States] in 2020 was leveraged by Republicans to characterize him as opportunistic. Stances he had taken related to gun control during that presidential campaign were also leveraged against him by Republicans.
Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.
Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history, while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.

Republican primary

On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair. West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas. The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates. On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary. Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott. On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Don
Huffines

Perry
Chad
Prather
Allen
West
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group February 25–28, 20221,040 ± 3.0%62%10%2%2%15%5%3%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 21–22, 2022522 ± 4.2%61%9%3%3%12%3%9%
UT TylerFebruary 8–15, 2022581 ± 4.4%60%3%6%3%7%5%15%
YouGov/UTJanuary 28 – February 7, 2022375 ± 5.1%60%14%5%3%15%3%
Paradigm Partners January 31, 20221,542 ± 2.5%34%5%6%6%43%3%4%
UT TylerJanuary 18–25, 2022514 ± 5.1%59%4%4%2%6%4%20%
YouGov/UHJanuary 14–24, 2022490 ± 3.7%58%7%3%2%11%2%17%
Paradigm Partners January 9, 20221,486 ± 2.5%33%5%12%3%38%3%7%
Paradigm Partners December 16, 2021447 ± 4.5%33%2%15%1%35%14%
Paradigm Partners November 30, 202142%3%2%36%17%
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 2021520 ± 4.7%65%3%6%6%3%18%
Paradigm Partners November 11, 202143%3%2%33%19%
YouGov/UT/TTOctober 22–31, 2021554 ± 4.2%56%7%4%13%4%16%
YouGov/TXHPFOctober 14–27, 2021405 ± 4.9%61%4%3%13%19%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 2021427 ± 6.1%70%15%15%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 2021431 ± 6.0%65%20%15%
Victory Insights July 22–24, 2021400 ± 4.9%80%20%
Paradigm Partners June 30, 202173%17%10%
UT TylerJune 22–29, 2021440 ± 5.4%77%12%11%

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Don
Huffines
Sid
Miller
Allen
West
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies June 14–17, 2021446 ± 4.6%69%3%3%13%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Jack Daniel Foster Jr., teacher
  • R. Star Locke, veteran

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Inocencio
Barrientez
Michael
Cooper
Joy
Diaz
Jack
Deirdre
Gilbert
Star
Locke
Beto
O'Rourke
Rich
Wakeland
OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeFebruary 21–22, 2022388 ± 4.9%1%5%4%78%2%11%
UT TylerFebruary 8–15, 2022479 ± 4.9%2%3%4%2%2%2%68%2%14%
YouGov/UTJanuary 28 – February 7, 2022348 ± 5.3%2%1%2%93%1%1%
UT TylerJanuary 18–25, 2022459 ± 5.4%1%6%4%2%1%1%58%0%27%
YouGov/UHJanuary 14–24, 2022616 ± 3.3%3%4%3%73%1%16%
YouGov/UT/TTOctober 22–31, 2021436 ± 4.7%70%5%25%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018

Withdrew/disqualified

Independents and other parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Jacqueline Abernathy, public health policies consultant and American Solidarity Party candidate
  • Deirdre Dickson-Gilbert, public educator
  • Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired educator and write-in candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020

Disqualified

  • Patrick Wynne, software engineer, data scientist and U.S. Navy veteran

Declined

General election

Polling

Aggregate polls

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Beto
O'Rourke
OtherUndecided
CWS Research November 2–5, 2022786 ± 3.5%53%42%2%3%
UT TylerOctober 17–24, 20221,330 ± 2.9%47%44%7%1%
UT TylerOctober 17–24, 2022973 ± 3.4%50%44%5%1%
Emerson CollegeOctober 17–19, 20221,000 ± 3.0%52%42%1%4%
Emerson CollegeOctober 17–19, 20221,000 ± 3.0%53%44%3%
Siena CollegeOctober 16–19, 2022649 ± 5.1%52%43%2%4%
Beacon Research October 15–19, 20221,264 ± 2.8%48%45%
BSP Research/UTOctober 11–18, 20221,400 ± 2.6%46%42%3%9%
YouGov/UTOctober 7–17, 2022833 ± 3.3%54%43%4%2%
CiviqsOctober 8–11, 2022791 ± 4.0%52%44%3%0%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–6, 20221,058 ± 4.4%49%45%1%5%
Marist CollegeOctober 3–6, 2022898 ± 4.8%52%44%1%4%
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 22–26, 20221,327 ± 2.7%53%46%2%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 20–22, 20221,000 ± 3.0%50%42%4%5%
ActiVoteJune 23 – September 21, 2022323 ± 6.0%47%40%12%
Siena CollegeSeptember 14–18, 2022651 ± 4.4%50%43%2%5%
Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationSeptember 6–15, 20221,172 ± 2.9%51%44%2%3%
UT TylerSeptember 7–13, 20221,268 ± 2.9%47%38%9%2%
Data for Progress September 2–9, 2022712 ± 4.0%50%45%2%3%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022813 ± 4.4%48%46%6%
YouGov/UTAugust 26 – September 6, 20221,200 ± 2.8%45%40%4%11%
YouGov/UH/TSUAugust 11–29, 20221,312 ± 2.7%49%42%2%7%
UT TylerAugust 1–7, 20221,384 ± 2.8%46%39%13%1%
UT TylerAugust 1–7, 20221,215 ± 3.0%48%42%9%1%
YouGov/UHJune 27 – July 7, 20221,169 ± 2.9%47%42%2%9%
YouGov/UHJune 27 – July 7, 20221,006 ± 3.1%49%44%2%5%
YouGov/CBS NewsJune 22–27, 2022548 ± 6.6%49%41%4%6%
YouGov/UTJune 16–24, 20221,200 ± 2.8%45%39%6%10%
YouGov/PerryUndemJune 15–24, 20222,000 ± 2.2%47%43%3%5%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 9–13, 20221,257 ± 2.8%48%43%2%5%
Blueprint Polling June 8–10, 2022603 ± 4.0%56%37%7%
UT TylerMay 2–10, 20221,232 ± 3.1%46%39%14%2%
YouGov/UTApril 14–22, 20221,200 ± 2.8%48%37%7%9%
YouGov/TXHPFMarch 18–28, 20221,139 ± 2.9%50%42%3%5%
Texas LyceumMarch 11–20, 2022926 ± 3.2%42%40%7%11%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 21–22, 20221,000 ± 3.0%52%45%3%
UT TylerFebruary 8–15, 20221,188 ± 3.1%45%38%16%1%
Climate NexusFebruary 1–9, 2022806 ± 3.6%45%40%7%8%
YouGov/UTJanuary 28 – February 7, 20221,200 ± 2.8%47%37%6%11%
UT TylerJanuary 18–25, 20221,072 ± 3.5%47%36%16%1%
YouGov/UHJanuary 14–24, 202248%43%3%6%
Quinnipiac UniversityDecember 2–6, 20211,224 ± 2.8%52%37%4%6%
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 20211,106 ± 3.2%45%39%16%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021884 ± 3.3%40%39%5%7%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021854 ± 3.4%43%44%5%6%
YouGov/UT/TTOctober 22–31, 20211,200 ± 2.8%46%37%7%10%
YouGov/TXHPFOctober 14–27, 20211,402 ± 3.1%43%42%3%12%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 20211,148 ± 3.7%42%37%21%
UT TylerJune 22–29, 20211,090 ± 3.0%45%33%22%
Public Opinion Strategies June 14–17, 2021800 ± 3.5%52%42%6%

Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Julián
Castro
OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021884 ± 3.3%43%35%4%9%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesNovember 9, 2021854 ± 3.4%45%39%4%8%

Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Beto
O'Rourke
Matthew
McConaughey
OtherUndecided
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022813 ± 4.4%42%39%13%6%
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 20211,106 ± 3.2%37%26%27%10%
YouGov/TXHPFOctober 14–27, 20211,402 ± 3.1%40%37%9%2%12%

Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Don
Huffines
Other
UT TylerJune 22–29, 20211,090 ± 3.0%46%22%32%

Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Matthew
McConaughey
Other
UT TylerNovember 9–16, 20211,106 ± 3.2%35%43%22%
UT TylerSeptember 7–14, 20211,148 ± 3.7%35%44%21%
UT TylerJune 22–29, 20211,090 ± 3.0%39%38%23%
UT TylerApril 6–13, 20211,124 ± 2.9%33%45%22%

Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Data for Progress September 15–22, 2020726 ± 3.6%46%34%20%

Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Greg
Abbott
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Quinnipiac UniversitySeptember 24–27, 2021863 ± 3.3%42%51%7%
Quinnipiac UniversityJune 15–21, 20211,099 ± 3.0%46%48%6%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.
DistrictAbbottO'RourkeRepresentative
77%22%Louie Gohmert
77%22%Nathaniel Moran
62%36%Dan Crenshaw
59%39%Van Taylor
59%39%Keith Self
66%33%Pat Fallon
63%35%Lance Gooden
65%34%Jake Ellzey
35%63%Lizzie Fletcher
67%32%Kevin Brady
67%32%Morgan Luttrell
23%76%Al Green
61%37%Michael McCaul
74%25%August Pfluger
60%39%Kay Granger
75%24%Ronny Jackson
66%32%Randy Weber
52%46%Vicente Gonzalez
52%46%Monica De La Cruz
35%64%Veronica Escobar
65%34%Pete Sessions
25%73%Sheila Jackson Lee
77%22%Jodey Arrington
32%66%Joaquín Castro
61%38%Chip Roy
59%39%Troy Nehls
54%44%Tony Gonzales
58%41%Beth Van Duyne
68%31%Roger Williams
61%37%Michael Burgess
64%35%Michael Cloud
46%52%Henry Cuellar
30%68%Sylvia Garcia
22%77%Eddie Bernice Johnson
22%77%Jasmine Crockett
61%37%John Carter
34%64%Colin Allred
26%73%Marc Veasey
43%56%Mayra Flores
43%56%Vicente Gonzalez
26%73%Lloyd Doggett
26%73%Greg Casar
67%31%Brian Babin
21%77%Lloyd Doggett
61%38%Wesley Hunt

Analysis

Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties, mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly in West Texas and the Texas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.
Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington in North Texas, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land in Southeast Texas, and San Antonio–New Braunfels in South-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin.
In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength had declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.
O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin, his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4%-35%; Dallas ; Bexar, home to San Antonio ; and Harris, home to Houston. He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5%-43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.
Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily Hispanic South Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval, Starr, and Maverick ; voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson.
Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male and female voters, whites, and other races, voters over 45, college graduates and non-college graduates, and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election. O'Rourke won black voters, Latinos, Asians, voters between 18 and 44, Independents and moderates.
Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male and female voters ; whites and other races and ethnicities ; voters over 45 ; college graduates, non-college graduates ; white men ; white women. O'Rourke won African Americans, Latinos ; African American men ; African American women Latino men and Latina women.

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. There were 4,327 total respondents.